END样本最近邻密度估计的强相合速度

本文研究了扩展负相依(END)样本最近邻密度估计的强相合性问题.利用END序列的Bernstein型不等式和截尾的方法,获得了END样本最近邻密度估计的强相合速度,推广了NA样本和ND样本最近邻密度估计的相应结果.     

Real-World Forward Rate Dynamics With Affine Realizations

We investigate the existence of affine realizations for Lévy driven interest rate term structure models under the real-world probability measure, which so far has only been studied under an assumed risk-neutral probability measure. For models driven by Wiener processes, all results obtained under the risk-neutral approach concerning the existence of affine realizations are transferred to the general case. A similar result holds true for models driven by compound Poisson processes with finite jump size distributions. However, in the presence of jumps with infinite activity we obtain severe restrictions on the structure of the market price of risk; typically, it must even be constant.     

温州地区维持性血液透析患者矿物质代谢紊乱情况调查

目的 了解温州地区维持性血液透析患者矿物质代谢紊乱情况及相关影响因素。方法 收集2013 年在温州地区长期维持性血液透析患者血钙、血磷、全段甲状旁腺激素（iPTH）的资料,并根据美国肾脏病协会指南（KDOQI）及中华医学会肾脏病学分会（CSN）制订的《慢性肾脏病矿物质和骨异常诊治指导》计算患者的血钙、血磷、iPTH 的达标率,并对相关影响因素进行分析。结果 共收集2 227 例2013 年在温州地区各家透析中心维持性血液透析患者的资料。按KDOQI 指南标准,患者血钙、血磷、iPTH 的达标率分别为44.90%、46.30%、27.64%,3 项均达标者占6.29%;按《慢性肾脏病矿物质和骨异常诊治指导》建议,患者血钙、血磷、iPTH 的达标率分别为57.66%、46.30%、61.14%,3 项均达标者占16.97%。此外,三级医院维持性血液透析患者的平均血磷水平为（1.67±0.51）mmol/L,血磷达标率49.10%,二级医院患者的平均血磷水平为（1.79±0.53）mmol/L,达标率为43.22%,三级医院维持性血液透析患者的血磷达标率情况优于二级医院。血白蛋白、含钙磷结合剂的使用及透析频率是影响血钙达标的独立相关因素。患者的性别、年龄、活性维生素D 的使用、透析龄及透析频率是影响血磷达标的独立相关因素。患者活性维生素D的使用是影响iPTH 达标的独立相关因素。结论 温州地区维持性血液透析患者矿物质代谢紊乱纠正情况与有关指南的要求仍然存在较大差距;患者性别、营养状态、透析频率、含钙磷结合剂的服用、活性维生素D 的使用等是影响维持性血液透析患者矿物质代谢紊乱纠正的主要相关因素。     

带连续变利率风险模型最终破产概率上界

考虑了带二元连续变利息力的Sparre Andersen风险模型.研究了积累值盈余过程的表达式与性质;在利率递增环境下,利用推广后的调节系数方程组与递归技术推导了最终破产概率的上界,结论表明得到的破产概率上界是更为一般的Lundberg指数上界.     

The long‐term extreme price risk measure of portfolio in inventory financing: An application to dynamic impawn rate interval

Different from the short‐term risk measure for traditional financial assets (stocks, bonds, etc.), the key to illiquid inventory portfolio traded in the over‐the‐counter markets is to estimate the long‐term extreme price risk with time varying volatility. In this article, a new long‐term extreme price risk (value at risk and conditional value at risk) measure method for inventory portfolio and an application to dynamic impawn rate interval are proposed. To realize this, we first establish AutoRegressive Moving Average‐Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity‐Extreme Value Theory model and multivariatet‐Copula to depict the autocorrelation, fat tails, and volatility clustering of returns of inventories and the nonlinear dependence structure of inventories. Furthermore, we obtain the long‐term extreme price risk with time varying volatility via Monte Carlo simulation instead of square‐root‐of time rule. The results show that, first, benefits from risk diversification is significant; second, long‐term extreme price risk measure of inventory portfolio via Monte Carlo method outperforms the square‐root‐of time rule; the last is that the dynamic rate interval based on the long‐term price risk is superior to the crude rules of thumb in terms of reducing efficiency loss and improving risk coverage. In summary, this article provides a new quantitative framework for managing the risk of portfolio in inventory financing practice for banks constrained by risk limitation. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 20: 17–34, 2015     

Reaction mechanism and rate constants of the CH+CH4 reaction: a theoretical study

Ab initio and density functional calculations have been performed to elucidate the mechanism of CH radical insertion into methane. The results show that the reaction can be viewed to occur via two stages. On the first stage, the CH radical approaches methane without large structural changes to acquire proper positioning for the subsequent stage, where H-migration occurs from CH₄ to CH, along with a C–C bond formation. Where the first stage ends and the second begins, a tight transition state was located using the B3LYP/6-311G(d,p) and MP4(SDQ)/6-311++G(d,p) methods. Using a rigid rotor – harmonic oscillator approach within transition state theory, we show that at the MP5/6-311++G(d,p)//MP4(SDQ)/6-311++G(d,p) level the calculated rate constants are in a reasonably good agreement with experiment in a broad temperature range of 145–581 K. Even at low temperatures, the insertion reaction bottleneck is found about the location of the tight transition state, rather than at long separations between the CH and CH₄ reactants. In addition, high level CCSD(T)-F12/CBS calculations of the remainder of the C₂H₅ potential energy surface predict the CH+CH₄ reaction to proceed via the initial insertion step to the ethyl radical which then can emit a hydrogen atom to form highly exothermic C₂H₄+H products.     

基于变结构理论的中制导律设计方法研究

对于采用复合制导的空地导弹,中末制导交接班问题是影响命中概率的关键因素。针对这一问题,采用变结构理论设计中制导律。首先建立滑模面,保证滑模面上速度矢量与视线重合,且零化视线角速率,然后设计到达函数,使到达条件得到满足,可以保证交班时刻导弹可靠捕获目标,并为末制导提供最优初始条件。建立了导弹六自由度数学模型和目标捕获模型,进行全系统数字仿真,实验结果表明：在中末制导交接时刻,弹目视线与导弹速度矢量基本重合,误差为0.12°,视线角速度为-0.02°/s,在±20°视场下满足捕获需求,并且为末制导提供最优初始条件。该方法可以满足中末制导交接班要求,具有较强鲁棒性,且中制导段弹道平滑,需用过载小。     

孤立系内热传导过程(火积)耗散的解析解

(火积)耗散与熵增均可以作为传热不可逆性的度量, 当前(火积)理论的反对者认为(火积)是不必要的. 为说明(火积)的必要性, 从有效性的角度进行了论证, 即在描述传热过程不可逆性的变化上, (火积)的严格解析解存在, 而熵的严格解析解难以得到. 本文构建了孤立系内的一维及多维热传导模型, 求解了温度及其梯度的级数型解析解, 将其代入(火积)耗散的求解式, 得到其最初的形式为一多重级数的多重积分, 交换积分与级数计算顺序, 并利用特征函数的正交性, 将(火积)耗散求解式中的积分运算求出, 并使级数的维数降低, 最终将其表示为一稳态项与一瞬态项加和的形式, 其极限与文献中的结果一致. 通过对孤立系内(火积)耗散解析解的求解可以得出: 由于热传导过程熵与(火积)的解析解求解难度不同, 在描述传热过程不可逆性变化上, (火积)更加有效; 对于孤立系内不同维数的热传导问题, 只要温度场解析解存在, (火积)耗散解析解均可以应用特征函数正交性求解得到.     

准等熵压缩实验中金属铝的热力学耗散分析

为获取高压下材料的纯热力学压力-比容参考线和完全物态方程,减去应力-应变曲线中的其它信息,对准等熵压缩实验中由加载应变率引起的黏性耗散和热传导引起的热耗散做了分析讨论。基于反积分计算和流体动力学积分计算相结合的方法,根据激光加载(约108 s-1)和磁驱动准等熵压缩(约105 s-1)的实验数据,对材料声速、应力-应变曲线、温度和熵增等物理量进行计算,分析了不同应变率与该物理量的关系;还对热传导和SCG本构模型进行了计算,分析了热传导引起的温度变化对材料屈服强度、剪切模量和拉格朗日声速的影响。结果表明:激光加载实验中,应变率引起的温升差异约为180K,熵增差异约为250J/(kg·K),热传导导致温度下降40K;磁驱动准等熵压缩应变率较低,引起的熵增变化小于8J/(kg·K)。     

Theoretical kinetic study on the decomposition of 1,5‐diaminotetrazole

1,5‐Daminotetrazole (DAT) is of much interest because of the practical significance and the diversity of characteristics. The study on the decomposition pathway and the kinetics of DAT has been performed based on the quantum chemistry theory. The minimum energy path (MEP) calculation has shown that NH₂N₃ and NH₂CN are the initially detected products of DAT. And the structures of reactant, products and transition state were optimized with MP2 methods using 6‐311G** basis sets, and the energies were refined using CCSD(T)/6‐311G** levels of theory. The calculated rate constants were obtained using the conventional transition‐state theory (TST) and the canonical variational transition‐state theory (CVT) methods. The calculation results indicated that the energy barrier of decomposition reaction is 47.98 kcal mol^?1 and the variational effect is small. In addition, the rate constants and the Arrhenius experience formula of DAT decomposition have been obtained between 200 and 2500 K temperature regions. The fitted three‐parameter expressions calculated using the TST and CVT methods are (TST) and (CVT). This work may provide the theoretical support for further experimental synthesis and testing. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.